52% of Flippers Are Bullish on 2026 — Here's Why

I've been investing in real estate for over fifteen years now, and if there's one thing I've learned, it's that the crowd isn't always right. But when you see a significant split in sentiment between two groups of experienced investors looking at the same market? That's worth paying attention to.

The RCN Capital Investor Sentiment Survey dropped in February 2026, and the numbers tell an interesting story. Over half of house flippers — 52% to be exact — expect market conditions to improve this year. Meanwhile, only about 40% of rental property investors share that optimism.

That's a meaningful gap. And it raises an obvious question: what are flippers seeing that buy-and-hold investors might be missing?

The Flipper Optimism Gap: Breaking Down the RCN Capital Survey Results

Let's start with the raw numbers because they paint a picture worth examining.

The RCN Capital survey polled real estate investors across the country about their expectations for 2026. Among fix-and-flip investors, the breakdown looked like this:

52% expect market conditions to improve
28% anticipate conditions staying roughly the same
20% predict things will get worse

For rental investors, the sentiment was noticeably more cautious:

Around 40% expect improvement
35% see flat conditions
25% are bracing for decline

That 12-point gap in optimism isn't something you can chalk up to survey noise. These are two groups of investors looking at the same interest rate environment, the same housing supply dynamics, and the same economic backdrop — yet reaching different conclusions.

The survey also revealed that investor confidence has been ticking upward since late 2025. After nearly two years of elevated caution following the rate spike cycle, flippers in particular seem to be sensing a shift. And honestly? Their reasoning makes sense when you look at the underlying factors.

Why Flippers See Green Lights Where Rental Investors See Red Flags

Here's the thing about fix-and-flip investing versus rental investing: they're almost opposite business models that happen to involve the same asset class.

Flippers make money on the spread. They buy distressed properties below market value, renovate them, and sell at retail prices. Their profit comes from execution speed and the gap between acquisition cost and after-repair value. Interest rates matter, but mostly because they affect buyer demand at the exit.

Rental investors operate completely differently. They're buying cash flow streams and betting on long-term appreciation. For them, interest rates are a direct input cost that affects their returns every single month for years or decades.

So when rates stay elevated — and they have — it hits rental investors harder. A buy-and-hold investor who locked in a property at a 7.2% mortgage rate is watching their cash flow margins get squeezed compared to someone who bought the same property at 3.5% in 2021.

Flippers don't carry that weight. Their holding periods are measured in months, not decades. A slightly higher rate on their short-term financing is annoying, not devastating.

There's another factor at play too. Rental investors are dealing with compression on multiple fronts right now. Insurance costs have exploded in many markets. Property taxes keep climbing. And while rents have grown, they haven't kept pace with these expense increases in a lot of metros. That squeeze makes the math harder.

Flippers mostly sidestep these headaches. They're in and out before the long-term expense trends matter much.

Rising Inventory: The Hidden Opportunity Fueling Flipper Confidence

Probably the biggest driver of flipper optimism right now is something that's been building for months: inventory is finally coming back.

After years of historically tight supply, housing inventory has been climbing steadily. As of early 2026, active listings in many markets are approaching pre-pandemic levels. Some Sun Belt metros are actually seeing inventory above 2019 numbers.

For rental investors, more inventory is a mixed bag. Yes, it gives them more properties to choose from. But it also means the properties they already own face more competition when trying to attract tenants or eventual buyers.

For flippers? Rising inventory is almost pure upside.

More listings mean more opportunities to find distressed properties at good prices. Motivated sellers are more common. Days on market are stretching out, which gives flippers leverage in negotiations. And perhaps most importantly, the frenzy of 2021-2022 — when flippers were competing against owner-occupants throwing crazy over-ask offers — has cooled significantly.

I talked to a flipper in Phoenix last month who told me he's finding more deals in the MLS now than he has in three years. "It's not 2019 yet," he said, "but it's getting there."

That tracks with what the data shows. Markets that saw the most aggressive price appreciation during the pandemic — places like Boise, Austin, and the Florida Gulf Coast — are now seeing the most substantial inventory recovery. And that's creating real buying opportunities for investors who know how to spot value.

RTL Loans Are Back: How Easier Financing Is Empowering Fix-and-Flip Investors

Another tailwind for flippers in 2026: residential transitional loans are flowing again.

RTL lending — the short-term financing that fix-and-flip investors rely on — got tight during 2023 and stayed that way through much of 2024. Lenders got spooked by the rate environment and pulled back hard. Loan-to-value ratios dropped. Interest rates on hard money spiked well above historical norms. A lot of smaller flippers got squeezed out entirely.

But that's been reversing.

According to data from HousingWire, RTL origination volume has been climbing since mid-2025. More lenders are competing for flipper business, which has pushed rates down from their peaks. Terms have gotten more flexible too — I'm seeing LTV ratios creep back toward the 80-85% range that was common before the tightening.

This matters because leverage is the oxygen of the fix-and-flip business model. Most flippers don't have millions in cash sitting around. They need borrowed money to scale their operations. When that money gets expensive or scarce, deal flow drops even when opportunities exist.

The improved financing environment is giving flippers more capacity to act on the opportunities that rising inventory is creating. It's a one-two punch that helps explain why more than half of them are bullish on the year ahead.

Risk vs. Reward: Comparing Short-Term Flip Strategies to Long-Term Rentals in 2026

None of this means flipping is "better" than buy-and-hold investing. These are different strategies with different risk profiles, and the right choice depends on your capital situation, time availability, and personal goals.

But it's worth understanding why the risk-reward calculation looks different for each approach right now.

For flippers in 2026:

More inventory creates more buying opportunities
RTL financing is available and competitive
Holding periods are short, limiting rate exposure
Exit market shows stable demand from owner-occupants
Main risks: renovation cost overruns, project delays, localized demand shifts

For rental investors in 2026:

High purchase rates create cash flow pressure
Operating costs (insurance, taxes, maintenance) remain elevated
Rent growth has moderated in many markets
Appreciation outlook is uncertain with more inventory
Main advantages: long-term wealth building, passive income potential, inflation hedge

The cautious sentiment among rental investors isn't irrational. The math on new acquisitions is genuinely harder than it was a few years ago. Someone buying a rental property today needs to either accept lower returns, put down more cash to make the numbers work, or find an exceptional deal.

Flippers are operating in a different environment. They're not trying to make the numbers work over 30 years — they need the numbers to work over 6 months. And the conditions for that kind of short-term play have improved.

How to Position Your Investment Strategy for the Year Ahead

So what do you actually do with this information? Here's how I'm thinking about it.

If you're already flipping: This looks like a year to lean in, not pull back. The combination of better inventory and improved financing is exactly what you want to see. But don't get sloppy. More opportunity also means more chances to overpay for a property if you're not careful with your numbers. Stick to your ARV calculations and don't let competition fear push you into bad deals.

If you're considering your first flip: The barriers to entry are lower than they've been in a while. RTL lenders are lending. Inventory is available. But start small and conservative. Your first flip should be a single-family home that needs cosmetic work, not a gut rehab. Leave the complicated projects for when you've got some experience under your belt.

If you're a rental investor feeling cautious: Your caution is probably warranted for acquisitions, but don't abandon the strategy entirely. This might be a year to focus on your existing portfolio — refinancing if you can improve terms, optimizing operations, maybe selling underperforming assets. New acquisitions should be highly selective.

If you're flexible on strategy: Consider a hybrid approach. Maybe you flip a few properties this year to generate capital while being very selective about any buy-and-hold acquisitions. Use the profits from flipping to fund larger down payments on rentals when you do find deals that pencil.

One more thing worth mentioning: market selection matters more than usual right now. The national numbers are useful, but real estate is always local. Some markets have seen inventory recover dramatically. Others remain tight. Some metros are seeing strong buyer demand that makes flipping safer. Others are softer.

Do your homework on your specific markets before committing capital. The 52% of bullish flippers aren't bullish on every zip code in America — they're bullish on the opportunities they're seeing in their areas.

The divergence between flipper and rental investor sentiment tells us something real about where the opportunities are concentrated right now. Flippers are positioned to capitalize on rising inventory and improved financing in ways that buy-and-hold investors can't as easily.

That doesn't mean rental investing is dead or flipping is guaranteed to succeed. It means the conditions favor shorter-term execution strategies in the current environment.

If you've been waiting on the sidelines for conditions to improve, the flipper crowd is telling you something worth hearing: for their business model at least, the improvement might already be here.