Pending Sales Turn Positive YoY: Spring 2026 Starts Now
I've been watching real estate cycles for over fifteen years now. And if there's one pattern I've learned to trust, it's this: the market turns before the headlines do.
Right now, we're living through a textbook example. Scroll through any mainstream news feed and you'll still see doom-and-gloom stories about housing. Sales crashes. Affordability crises. Buyers sitting on the sidelines.
But pull up the weekly data? Completely different story.
Pending home sales just turned positive year-over-year. Not in April when everyone expects "spring season" to kick off. Not in March. Right now, in the last week of February.
If you're an investor waiting for some official signal that it's time to move, this is it. The momentum shift is already underway. And by the time the monthly reports catch up and CNBC starts talking about a "surprising recovery," the best opportunities will be gone.
Let me break down what's actually happening in the data and how you can position yourself ahead of the wave.
The Turning Point Headlines Missed: Weekly Pending Sales Now +4.6% YoY
Here's the number that should have your attention: weekly pending sales are up 4.6% year-over-year as of February 21st, according to HousingWire's latest tracking data.
Now, that might not sound like a massive swing. But context matters here.
We came off a period where pending sales were consistently negative YoY. The December pending home sales index fell 9.3% month-over-month and was down 3.0% year-over-year. That's the data everyone was reading in January and early February. That's what shaped the narrative.
But here's the thing about monthly indices — they're lagging indicators. By the time those numbers get compiled, revised, and released, the market has already moved on.
Weekly data tells a different story. It's messier, sure. More volatile week to week. But it captures inflection points that monthly reports smooth over or miss entirely.
And right now, that weekly data is showing clear momentum building. We're not talking about a single blip either. The trend has been strengthening through February.
Why does this matter for investors? Because pending sales measure signed contracts — actual buyer activity, not just listings or price opinions. When pending sales turn positive, it means real demand is returning to the market. Those contracts become closed sales 30-60 days later.
So if you're waiting to see "existing home sales up YoY" in some future NAR report, understand that the activity creating those numbers is happening right now. Today.
Regional Hotspots Leading the Charge: Austin (+10.1%) and NYC (+5.7%)
The national number is useful, but real estate is local. Always has been. So where exactly is this momentum showing up strongest?
Two markets stand out in the current data: Austin and New York City.
Austin's pending sales are up 10.1% year-over-year.
For anyone who's followed Austin over the past few years, this is significant. This market went through a genuine correction. After the pandemic boom pushed prices to unsustainable levels, Austin saw inventory climb, price cuts increase, and days on market extend. Some areas had homes sitting for 300+ days.
But here's what the crash headlines missed: Austin's fundamentals never broke. The tech sector showed resilience. Job growth continued. New construction got absorbed rather than creating a glut. Population growth didn't reverse.
What happened was a price reset, not a market collapse. And now buyers are responding to that reset. Double-digit YoY growth in pending sales tells you demand was waiting in the wings for conditions to improve.
Spyglass Realty's projections had existing home sales up 11% for Austin in 2026. We're seeing that play out in real time now.
New York City pending sales are up 5.7% YoY, with days on market down 14.3%.
That second stat is just as important as the first. When pending sales rise AND days on market drop simultaneously, you're looking at genuine demand pressure — not just sellers capitulating on price.
NYC is absorbing inventory faster than it did a year ago. Properties are going under contract more quickly. That's the kind of market shift that creates urgency.
Now, I'm not saying you need to rush into Austin or NYC specifically. What I'm saying is these regional leaders often signal where the broader market is heading. When major metros start showing coordinated strength in buyer activity, it tends to ripple outward.
Pay attention to your target markets. Are pending sales ticking up? Is days on market compressing? The weekly data is telling a story if you're willing to look.
Supply and Demand Both Improving: What New Listings Growth Means for Investors
Here's something that makes this momentum shift different from a typical "spring bounce."
New listings are up 3.2% year-over-year.
In a normal market, rising demand with flat supply creates a feeding frenzy. Prices spike. Buyers panic. Investors overpay.
But right now, we're seeing both supply and demand improving together. That's actually healthier for investors who want to build positions without getting caught in bidding wars.
More new listings mean more inventory to work with. More opportunities to find motivated sellers. More chances to negotiate reasonable terms.
At the same time, improving demand means your exit strategies remain viable. Whether you're flipping, wholesaling, or holding for rental income, you need buyers or tenants on the other end. Rising pending sales confirm that buyer pool is growing.
This balance won't last forever. Historically, demand recovers faster than supply in residential real estate because sellers are slower to act than buyers. A buyer sees improving conditions and jumps in. A seller hesitates, waits for "one more month of data," or holds out for a higher price.
So enjoy this window while it exists. You've got improving inventory to source from AND improving buyer activity to sell into. That's a good setup for transaction-focused investors.
Why Waiting for 'Spring Season' Could Cost You: Timing the Market Shift
Let me address the elephant in the room.
I know some of you are thinking: "Okay, but shouldn't I wait until spring? That's when the real buying activity happens."
This thinking made sense in normal years. Traditionally, housing activity dips in winter, picks up in March or April, and peaks in summer. Families want to move before the school year. Weather improves. Curb appeal matters again.
But 2026 isn't shaping up as a normal year.
The NAR is projecting that about 10% of newly qualifying households — people who couldn't afford to buy before but now can — may enter the market this year. That's roughly 550,000 potential new buyers compared to last year.
Those buyers aren't all going to wait politely until April. They're already starting to act. The weekly pending sales data proves it.
Here's my concern for investors who wait: by the time traditional "spring season" arrives, you'll be competing with:
- Retail buyers who've been pre-approved and hunting since January
- Institutional investors repositioning portfolios after Q1 reviews
- Other individual investors who read the weekly data and moved early
- FOMO-driven buyers reacting to headlines about the "surprise" recovery
That's a crowded field. And crowded fields mean compressed margins, fewer negotiation wins, and longer timelines to source good deals.
The smart play, in my experience, is to move when the data confirms a shift but before the narrative catches up. We're in that exact window right now.
I'm not saying panic-buy everything you can find. I'm saying the next 4-6 weeks offer a positioning advantage that disappears once spring headlines hit.
How to Position Your Portfolio Before Buyer Activity Peaks
Alright, let's get practical. What should you actually do with this information?
1. Accelerate your sourcing timeline.
If you've been casually watching markets or half-heartedly reaching out to sellers, shift into active mode now. The deals you put under contract in late February and March will close before the main spring wave arrives. That timing advantage matters.
2. Prioritize markets showing early momentum.
Not every market will recover at the same pace. Focus your energy on areas where pending sales are already trending positive YoY. Austin and NYC aren't the only ones — dig into your local weekly data. Look for the same signals: rising pending sales, falling days on market, increasing showing activity.
3. Revisit your financing relationships.
If rates stay in their current range and buyer activity keeps climbing, expect lenders to get busier. Lock in your pre-approvals, credit lines, or hard money relationships now while underwriters aren't slammed. I've seen deals fall apart because financing took too long during hot markets.
4. Adjust your offer strategy.
In slower markets, you can lowball aggressively and wait for counters. But as momentum builds, overly aggressive offers just get ignored. Start thinking about what terms make sense when sellers have multiple interested parties. That doesn't mean overpaying — it means crafting offers that close rather than offers that insult.
5. Prepare your exit channels.
If you're wholesaling, make sure your buyer list is current and engaged. If you're flipping, get your contractor relationships solid before every flipper in town is competing for the same crews. If you're holding, verify your rental market assumptions with current comparable rents.
The goal is having your entire operation ready to execute, not scrambling to figure out logistics while deals slip away.
Using Live Lists to Capture Early-Stage Momentum on JustPropertySearch
Look, I'll be straight with you: the investors who win in turning markets are the ones with the best information flow. Speed matters. Seeing opportunities before everyone else matters.
This is where JustPropertySearch's Live Lists become genuinely useful — not as some marketing gimmick, but as a practical tool for exactly this situation.
Here's what I mean.
Weekly pending sales are up 4.6% nationally. New listings are up 3.2%. That means more properties are hitting the market and more are going under contract every week than a year ago. The flow is increasing.
If you're manually checking listings once a day or relying on email alerts that batch overnight, you're already behind. In markets where days on market are compressing — like NYC with its 14.3% drop — even a few hours can mean missing a deal.
Live Lists let you set your exact criteria and get real-time notifications when matching properties hit the market. No waiting for digest emails. No refreshing Zillow obsessively. The system watches for you.
Set up your parameters now, while weekly pending sales are still in early-stage recovery. Set them for the markets showing momentum. Set them for the property types that fit your strategy.
Because here's what happens in a few weeks: more investors will notice the trend, more will start competing, and the properties that match common investment criteria will get swarmed. Being first to see them becomes a real competitive advantage.
I'm not saying JustPropertySearch is some magic bullet. You still need to analyze deals, negotiate well, and execute your strategy. But having instant visibility into new inventory while others are refreshing their browsers? That's an edge worth having.
The bottom line: Spring 2026 started in February. The weekly data is clear. Pending sales have turned positive YoY. Regional leaders like Austin and NYC are showing double-digit momentum. Supply and demand are improving together.
You can wait for the mainstream narrative to catch up and compete with everyone else in April. Or you can move now, position your portfolio, and let those late arrivers compete for your leftovers.
I know which approach I'm taking.
